The start of new month defines what’s coming next at PRED. With submarkets now live, things at PRED have started to roll at much faster pace, not to forgot that we are in final stretch of the season. Let’s deep dive into a week in Prediction markets
On April 2, the prediction markets legal war escalated beyond anything seen before the federal government itself went on offense
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, acting alongside the Department of Justice, filed lawsuits against Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois in three separate federal courts, seeking declarations that state gambling laws cannot override CFTC authority over prediction market event contracts.
CFTC Chairman Michael Selig described the states' actions as "aggressive and overzealous," arguing that Congress long ago decided a national framework for commodity derivatives markets was preferable to a fragmented patchwork of state regulations. "The CFTC will continue to safeguard its exclusive regulatory authority over these markets," he said.
Arizona's criminal charges against Kalshi were specifically cited in the filing as one of the triggering events.
The week delivered some of the most dramatic trading moments of the tournament.
Entering the Final Four on March 30, Arizona (35%) and Michigan (34%) were the co-favourites on Kalshi with $200 million in total tournament trading volume — the largest march madness futures market in history. Illinois sat at 18% and UConn at 14%
The Final Four took place on Saturday April 4 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. Michigan steamrolled Arizona 91–73, extending a remarkable streak of scoring 90+ points in all five tournament games a March Madness first.
The NBA Championship market on Polymarket showed the Oklahoma City Thunder leading at 38% up from 36% the previous week with the San Antonio Spurs at 18%, Boston Celtics at 11%, and Denver Nuggets at 9%.