The start of last week saw the european football getting kickstart, with Laliga, Ligue 1 & Premier League back in action. Let’s take a look at the a week in prediction market space
The biggest political prediction market story of the year so far. Prediction markets have shifted to favour Democrats to control the US Senate after the 2026 midterm election, marking the first time the party has taken the lead in the race's history on platforms tracking the outcome. Contracts on Kalshi and Polymarket now show Democrats with roughly 51% chance of winning Senate control, compared with 49% for Republicans.
The swing is dramatic: Kalshi data shows Democrats' odds have risen 11 percentage points since US military involvement in Iran began about two weeks ago a reversal from a year ago when markets priced Democrats at just 18% probability of taking the chamber.
On the House side: Democrats currently sit at an 88% probability to win the House and a 51% chance to flip the Senate, according to Polymarket's latest trading data.
The most likely outcome according to the balance-of-power combination market: a scenario where Republicans retain the Senate but Democrats take the House is priced in the 38–48% range, while a full Democratic sweep sits at roughly 33–47%, and a complete Republican hold lingers at 13–18%.
Prediction market users have traded in excess of $197 million on midterm election results, according to an NBC News analysis of 1,408 open markets on Kalshi and Polymarket.
The Wisconsin Elections Commission warned residents that betting on elections they vote in is illegal in the state and could cause their ballots to be disqualified drawing a sharp rebuke from Kalshi's head of enforcement, who called it "unconstitutional and illegal." Kalshi also announced a major media partnership this week: 270toWin partnered with Kalshi to display live prediction market odds for select 2026 House elections alongside live results through the midterms.
