In a week full of rollercoasters, April Madness came to an end. With a steady rise in volume, this was one of the best weeks for PRED. Let’s take a closer look at everything that happened.
On April 16, the most watched legal hearing in prediction markets history took place in San Francisco and it did not go well for the platforms.
The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit judges expressed deep skepticism that sports-based event contracts differ meaningfully from traditional sports betting during oral arguments in consolidated cases involving Kalshi, Robinhood, and Crypto.com against Nevada.
Circuit Judge Ryan Nelson bluntly rejected Crypto.com's attorney's argument that exchange-traded contracts differ from sportsbook wagers: "This is sophistry to the nth degree. You're still setting odds and betting on outcomes. I don't understand how you can say those are different."
Nelson went further, comparing prediction market contracts to roulette: "It's the same ball, it's the same roulette table, it's the same guy putting it around.”
Analysts noted both Kalshi and Polymarket had justified their eye-popping valuations of $22 billion and $20 billion respectively almost entirely on the back of sports contracts. Those valuations would be severely damaged if courts ultimately ruled CFTC status did not shield platforms from state gambling authorities.
The NBA Playoffs became the new dominant sports prediction market as of April 18.
Polymarket hosted 113 active NBA Playoffs markets generating $396.8 million in total trading volume as the first round got underway. The most active market was the 2026 NBA Champion, where the Oklahoma City Thunder were priced at a dominant 44% up from 40% the prior week, reflecting their status as defending champions and the West's No. 1 seed for the third straight year.
The Lakers upset the Rockets 107–98 in Game 1, with LeBron James and Bronny James becoming the first father-son duo to play together in an NBA Playoff game one of the most-traded novelty markets of the week on prediction platforms.
Polymarket's 4,770 active sports markets as of April 19 represented the highest single-week count the platform had ever recorded — nearly four times the number it had carried at the start of 2026