GYG S2 saw double the volume, double the traders & double the winners. Before we take look into the competition, let’s see what happened in Prediction Market space over the past 1 week
The week produced the most anticipated Champions League final in years — and prediction markets moved instantly to reflect it.
PSG eliminated Bayern Munich in an all-time classic. PSG advanced after a 6-5 aggregate thriller over Bayern Munich a 5-4 first-leg shootout in Paris followed by a tense 1-1 draw at the Allianz Arena on May 6, with Kvaratskhelia opening the scoring in Munich inside three minutes before Harry Kane equalised in the 94th minute to send the home crowd home with a goal but not a place in the final.
Arsenal beat Atletico to reach their first European Cup final since 2006. Arsenal secured their spot in the final with a 2-1 aggregate win over Atletico Madrid - overturning a 1-1 first leg via a second-leg victory at the Emirates on May 5, with Gabriel Martinelli leading the squad with six Champions League goals this season. It was Arsenal's first European Cup final in 20 years
The prediction market was immediately repriced. Kalshi's Champions League Winner market hit $17.9 million in volume with the final confirmed PSG at 59% and Arsenal at 41%. The market was not being dramatic about PSG's edge: last season they eliminated Arsenal in the semifinals, then beat Inter Milan 5-0 in the final the largest winning margin in Champions League final history.
On Polymarket, PSG held a 57.5% implied probability to Arsenal's 42.5% — with 626 active traders debating the May 30 final at Budapest's Puskás Aréna.
It’s a clash between the Best Attack vs Best Defense in Europe this Season!
The NBA second round became the dominant North American sports prediction market of the week.
The championship odds board as of May 10 showed OKC Thunder at -160 (approximately 61% implied), San Antonio Spurs at +320 (24%), New York Knicks at +700 (12.5%), and Detroit Pistons at +1800 (5%) — with the two Western Conference powers on a crash course toward a Conference Finals showdown.
OKC Thunder were almost comically dominant. The Thunder closed as -3000 favourites over the Lakers after Game 1 — a 108-90 victory in which OKC outscored LA in every quarter.
The Spurs vs Timberwolves series was a thriller. Minnesota pulled off a stunning Game 1 road win after Anthony Edwards returned from a knee injury far earlier than expected, scoring 18 points in 25 minutes off the bench.