The european football season is officially underway, also now with the transfer market closed the real fun begins. That’s not it, the month of september will also see other major sports like NFL, NBA kickoff their leagues. While the new leagues will keep on coming, let’s take a look at a week in PM space
The dominant macro story of the week and one of the most dramatic single-event prediction market repricing moments of 2026. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh delivered his first Jackson Hole address on August 28, telling the assembled central bankers that if underlying inflation is not moving to 2% "clearly and at sufficient speed," the Fed still has "work to do."
Before Warsh spoke, odds that the central bank would maintain the status quo in September were nearly 70%. Traders on prediction market platform Kalshi now believe there are 48% odds that the Fed will hike rates by 25 basis points.
Traders of fed funds futures see a 60.4% chance of a quarter-point hike in September, up from around 56% on Friday, according to the CME's FedWatch tool. The S&P 500 fell 0.25% and the Nasdaq slid 0.52% on the day. A single speech in Wyoming flipped the most closely watched financial market in the world and Kalshi was cited by CNBC, Bloomberg, Reuters and the Bond Buyer as the key real-time signal. Prediction markets as monetary policy intelligence is now mainstream.
Kalshi is partnering with brokerage and financial infrastructure startup Alpaca to make its event contracts available to an international audience. Alpaca reaches 14 million brokerage accounts across more than 300 financial institutions worldwide, giving Kalshi a path to international expansion.
Through the partnership, Alpaca's partners and users will be able to access Kalshi event contracts across categories including economic indicators, financial markets, weather, sports, and cultural events through the same infrastructure they already use for other financial products.
The partnership essentially turns Alpaca into a gateway for prediction market trading at a scale Kalshi couldn't achieve on its own. Alpaca supports roughly 83,000 monthly API users, giving developers and institutions a plug-and-play system for adding new asset classes to their platforms.
The international rollout follows Kalshi's June partnership with Wealthsimple in Canada. The strategic framing: Kalshi is building a distribution network that doesn't require it to obtain individual regulatory approvals in every country. Alpaca handles the local infrastructure, Kalshi provides the marketplace and clearing.
Prediction market data from technology investment firm Paradigm shows sports-related trading volume on Kalshi and Polymarket has already topped $17 billion in August, with approximately $416 million coming from football.
In August 2025, football-related volume was $205.2 million. That football-related volume then jumped to $2.2 billion in September 2025. A rough, unscientific estimate for this year would therefore put September football-related prediction market volume above $4 billion. Sports combo volume this August is already $5 billion, compared to zero in August 2025.